Tuesday, May 31, 2011

NBA Finals Preview: Dallas Vs. Miami

                     

Miami Heat
2010-2011 Season- 58-24, 1st place Southeast Division
Playoffs- Defeated Philadelphia 4-1, Boston 4-1, Chicago 4-1

Starting 5 (Regular/Postseason)
PG- Mike Bibby (8.6 PPG/3.3 APG/2.4 RPG; 3.6/1.2/1.9)
SG- Dwyane Wade (25.5 PPG/4.6 APG/6.4 RPG; 23.7/4.1/7.2)
SF- LeBron James (26.7 PPG/7.0 APG/7.5 RPG; 26.0/5.5/8.9)
PF- Chris Bosh (18.7 PPG/1.9 APG/8.3 RPG; 18.6/1.1/8.9)
C- Zydrunas Ilgauskas (5.0 PPG/0.4 APG/4.0 RPG; 3.6/0.3/3.6)

Bench
Mike Miller (20:24/5.6 PPG/1.2 APG/4.5 RPG; 10:06/2.2/0.7/2.7)
Joel Anthony (19:30/2.0 PPG/0.3 APG/3.5 RPG; 30:06/3.3/0.5/5.1)
Udonis Haslem (26:30/8.0 PPG/0.5 APG/8.5 RPG; 19:00/3.8/0.8/3.8)
Mario Chalmers (22:30/6.4 PPG/2.5 APG/2.1 RPG; 22:30/6.1/1.5/1.6)
James Jones (19:06/5.9 PPG/0.5 APG/2.0 RPG; 22:42/6.5/0.2/2.5)

Key Injuries: none

Coach: Erik Spoelstra, 148-98 in regular season, 16-11 in playoffs..After finishing 3rd in the Southeast division and going a combined 4-8 in two first round exits in his first two seasons on the Miami Heat bench, Spoelstra won 58 games and delivered the Heat their first division title since 2007 after the Heat picked up hot free agents Chris Bosh and LeBron James in the offseason.  After a successful regular season, he coached the Heat to their second Eastern Conference Championship in franchise history winning 12 of 15 games, knocking off NBA MVP Derrick Rose and the top-seeded Chicago Bulls in their conference finals.  With a series win over Dallas, the Heat will get their first championship under Spoelstra and first since 2006.

Team Overview- The star-studded Miami Heat roster that featured Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade, the Heat showed signs of inconsistency during the regular season.  They've turned it on in the postseason, however, as they finished off the up-and-coming Philadelphia 76ers, defending Eastern Conference Champion Boston Celtics, and top-seeded Chicago Bulls in 5 games each, and limited NBA MVP Derrick Rose to 35% shooting in the final two games of the conference finals.  They are a little shaky in the backcourt but can get by with Wade, but down low are as deep as anyone, with James, Bosh, Ilgauskas, Anthony, and Haslem, who has been huge since coming back from an achilles injury suffered in November.  They also have shooters in James Jones and Mike Miller off the bench, who have stolen games in the postseason with their 3-point shooting ability.  Overall this Miami team has proven to be a offensive and defensive juggernaut that has found ways to overcome their weaknesses that limited them in the regular season and are firing at all cylinders at the right time of the year, which makes them very scary.

X-Factor- The Front Court..The Heat have been money down low this postseason, averaging about 32 defensive boards and 7 blocks as a unit in the postseason.  They showed this in the Conference Finals by neutralizing Derrick Rose in the paint, and not allowing him to drive the lane for a layup and try to draw fouls, his biggest strength that won him the MVP this season.  This is a team very deep at the forward position, and has gotten deeper with the return of Udonis Haslem.

Dallas Mavericks
2010-2011- 57-25, 2nd place Southwest Division
Playoffs- Defeated Portland 4-2, LA Lakers 4-0, Oklahoma City 4-1

Starting 5 (Regular/Playoffs)
PG- Jason Kidd (7.9 PPG/8.2 APG/4.4 RPG; 9.9/7.7/4.5)
SG- Deshawn Stevenson (5.3 PPG/1.1 APG/1.5 RPG; 3.5/0.7/0.7)
SF- Shawn Marion (12.5 PPG/1.4 APG/6.9 RPG; 11.2/2.1/6.3)
PF- Dirk Nowitzki (23.0 PPG/2.6 APG/7.0 RPG; 28.4/2.7/7.5)
C- Tyson Chandler (10.1 PPG/0.4 APG/9.4 RPG; 7.3/0.3/9.3)

Bench
Peja Stojackovic (20:12/8.6 PPG/0.9 APG/2.6 RPG; 21:36/8.8/0.5/1.9)
Jason Terry (31:18/15.8 PPG/4.1 APG/1.9 RPG; 32:36/17.3/3.2/1.9)
Brendan Haywood (18:30/4.4 PPG/0.3 APG/5.2 RPG; 16:36/3.4/0.3/4.4)
JJ Barea (20:36/9.5 PPG/3.9 APG/2.0 RPG; 17:30/8.9/3.5/1.7)

Key Injuries- Caron Butler (knee)

Coach- Rick Carlisle, 3rd year with team, 162-82 in regular season, 19-12 in playoffs..Has taken the Mavericks to playoffs in all three years, but the first time he has taken a team to the NBA finals.  He has done an outstanding job with Dallas, with the team improving in wins every season, with this year including a 57-win regular season, and has gone 8-2 in the playoffs.  In the playoffs, they have won 10 of their last 11 games since losing game 4 of the conference quarterfinals to Portland, sweeping the defending NBA Champions LA Lakers and the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder, knocking them off in 5 games.

Team Overview- Much better up front, with the starting veteran center in Tyson Chandler, who has averaged 7 points and 9 boards in the playoffs, and Shawn Marion, who has averaged 6 boards.  They have the Haywood and Stojakovic coming off the bench, who has hit 29 3-pointers in the finals.  They also have Dirk, who has been one of the best players in the playoffs, averaging 28.4 points per game.  In the backcourt, they have the veteran Jason Kidd and JJ Barea at the point, and SG Jason Terry coming off the bench, averaging 17.3 PPG in the playoffs.  The problem with the Mavericks, much the Bulls, is they lack a secondary scorer behind Dirk, which could prove costly against a team that features LeBron and Wade.

X-Factor- The outside game..The Mavericks had a great perimeter game this postseason, making nearly two out of every five shots from downtown.  With two teams that have very stingy paint defenses, the 2011 finals will most likely be decided on the outside.

Team Comparisons
Experience- Both veteran teams that have been assembled to win a championship, recruiting guys who are willing to make the sacrifice for a ring.  Dallas features Terry and Nowitzki who were on the 2006 team, and Kidd who went to finals twice with New Jersey.  They also have veterans Shawn Marion and Peja Stojakovic, who came close multiple times with Phoenix and Sacramento, respectively.  As for Miami, they have the only three players in the series with rings, Wade and Haslem, who were on the 2006 Miami team that won it all, and Eddie House, a big part of the 2008 Boston Celtics team.  They also have LeBron, who went to the finals in 2007 with the Cavaliers along with Ilgauskas, and Mike Bibby who has good playoff experience from his years with the Kings and the Hawks.  Advantage: Miami

Back Court: The Mavs have Jason Kidd, who has been an elite NBA point guard for about 15 years now and continues to be.  They then have the young and explosive JJ Barea as the second unit PG and Jason Terry at the off-guard as the team's second leading scorer behind Dirk.  The Heat have Dwyane Wade, one the NBA's best players and the leader of this Heat unit, but not much else outside that.  Advantage: Dallas

Front Court: Both teams are very deep at the forward and center position, and are big reasons why they are so good defensively.  They Heat have their scorer at the forward position in LeBron, while the Mavs have Dirk  Advantage: Even

Offense: The Heat have three guys who can go for 30 on any given night in Bosh, James, and Wade.  Not a whole lot besides that but have gotten clutch performances out of guys like Miller and Jones in the playoffs.  The Mavs have Dirk as their only scoring threat, and don't have the secondary option like Miami has got.  Advantage: Miami

Defense: Both great defenses, but the Dallas defense will be more exposed as a result of the threats that Miami brings to the table.  The Heat have a much easier job, and I assume will do to Dirk what they did to D-Rose during the last series.  Advantage: Miami

Series Outlook: This should be a good defensive series with low scoring games in the 80s and 90s.  The games will come down to the wire for the most part, which will help the Heat big time as they have LeBron and Wade, and will force guys other that Dirk to beat them.  The Mavs will need to use their good perimeter offense in order to win the close games, which have gone to the Heat nearly every time this postseason.  Heat in 6.

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